5
Mackenzie's Novva
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 84
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
34%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -7.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |