4
Youreawizard Harry
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 83
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 27/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |