3
Jazz Festival
7yo Gelding · 8-4 · OR 62
Scottsville · Lucky Fish Aviator Class 4 · 7f 210y
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Greyville | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Scottsville | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Greyville | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Scottsville | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Scottsville | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Greyville | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength36%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 25/11/2025 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 19/12/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 18/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.45 |
| 15/02/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 70% | -0.16 |
| 15/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 90% | +0.04 |
| 28/08/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |