4
Mister Nibbles
5yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 77
Scottsville · Lucky Fish Aviator Class 4 · 7f 210y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Scottsville | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Scottsville | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Scottsville | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Greyville | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Scottsville | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Scottsville | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
Delivery trend -7.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 15/02/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 01/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 17/05/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 70% | -0.01 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |