5
War Reporter
5yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 81
Scottsville · Lucky Fish Aviator Class 4 · 7f 210y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today: 4
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Vaal | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-28 | Vaal | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-04-30 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-03-28 | Vaal | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-07-24 | Vaal | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2025-07-06 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 05/06/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 23/06/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 06/07/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 24/07/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 30/04/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |