IvyArcIvyArc
1

Down By The River

6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 90

Scottsville · Online Form Guide www.galloptv.co.za B Stakes · 7f 210y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

4-time course winner. Creditable second of 10 in minor event at this C&D (good, 8/1) 29 days ago. Can give a good account without posing serious threat to principals.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength62%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC4 @ Greyville 26/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 115 · HIGHER CLASS26/12C4C5 @ Scottsville 11/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 1m154y GS 118C5 @ Scottsville 08/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m1f153y GS 1258/02C5C5 @ Greyville 22/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 6f211y Sft 132C1 @ Scottsville 05/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 1m154y GS 118 · HIGHER CLASS5/04C1C5 @ Greyville 09/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 131C5 @ Scottsville 17/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 13217/05C5C3 @ Greyville 06/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 115 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Scottsville 23/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 13223/08C5projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Scottsville?2nd2nd0
2026-06-06Greyville?9th7th+2
2026-05-17Scottsville?3rd3rd0
2026-05-09Greyville?6th7th−1
2026-04-05Scottsville?6th2nd+4
2026-03-22Greyville?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/1222/0317/0523/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength74%

Delivery trend -2.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/12/20254th18/15%63%+0.57
11/01/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
08/02/20264th9/276%57%-0.19
22/03/20267th15/261%54%-0.07
05/04/20266th10/147%0%-0.47
09/05/20266th80/10%0%0.00
17/05/20263rd8/158%78%+0.20
06/06/20269th40/10%11%+0.11
23/08/20262nd17/255%89%+0.34