6
Commanding
5yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 15
Scottsville · Bet With Colossus Pools Exclusive On www.tote.co.za Class 5 · 5f 212y
#14
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Kenilworth | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Durbanville | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Kenilworth | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Kenilworth | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-12-17 | Kenilworth | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Kenilworth | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 14-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 56% | -0.31 |
| 08/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |
| 31/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 91% | +0.07 |
| 26/11/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 70% | -0.06 |
| 17/12/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 31/05/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 18% | -0.34 |
| 16/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 07/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 05/08/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |