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Connoisseur

6yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 38

Scottsville · Bet With Colossus Pools Exclusive On www.tote.co.za Class 5 · 5f 212y

#11

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. Thirteen runs since last win in 2025. 25/1, fourth of 9 in handicap at Greyville (6f, soft) 24 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Greyville 31/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m209y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS31/12C55 @ Scottsville 25/01/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR - · 1m154y GS 1185 @ Scottsville 15/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 7f210y GS 11715/0255 @ Greyville 17/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Std 120C5 @ Greyville 06/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 1m1f208y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS6/05C5C5 @ Greyville 20/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f211y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Greyville 10/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 1m209y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS10/06C55 @ Scottsville 08/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 1155 @ Greyville 28/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 5f212y Hvy 11528/085projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Greyville54th4th0
2026-07-08Scottsville53rd3rd0
2026-06-10Greyville?10th9th+1
2026-05-20Greyville?10th9th+1
2026-05-06Greyville?10th9th+1
2026-04-17Greyville57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/1217/0410/0628/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength82%

Delivery trend +6.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/12/20253rd14/126%82%+0.56
25/01/202613th11/142%8%-0.34
15/02/202611th28/10%0%0.00
17/04/20267th22/10%25%+0.25
06/05/202610th17/255%18%-0.37
20/05/202610th22/10%18%+0.18
10/06/202610th25/10%18%+0.18
08/07/20263rd50/10%85%+0.85
28/08/20264th22/10%63%+0.63