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13

Lunch Money

7yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 75

Scottsville · Bet With Colossus Pools Exclusive On www.tote.co.za Class 5 · 5f 212y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

92%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

First run since leaving D. Zaki when career best when winning 8-runner minor event at this C&D (good, 2/1) 64 days ago. First run for yard after leaving F. Greyling. Shortlist material.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength68%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Scottsville 11/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 5f212y GS 13511/0155 @ Greyville 06/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y Std 135C5 @ Scottsville 15/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 140 · HIGHER CLASS15/03C55 @ Greyville 11/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 5f212y GS 132C5 @ Greyville 06/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 4f214y Std 138 · HIGHER CLASS6/05C55 @ Greyville 27/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 4f214y Std 1285 @ Greyville 03/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 5f212y Std 1303/065C5 @ Greyville 22/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 6f211y Std 138 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Scottsville 19/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 138 · HIGHER CLASS19/07C5projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19Scottsville?1st0th+1
2026-06-22Greyville?2nd1st+1
2026-06-03Greyville52nd2nd0
2026-05-27Greyville51st1st0
2026-05-06Greyville?5th4th+1
2026-04-11Greyville54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0111/043/0619/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength93%

Delivery trend +4.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/01/20265th10/382%67%-0.16
06/02/20266th5/174%50%-0.24
15/03/20264th9/488%73%-0.15
11/04/20264th11/271%75%+0.04
06/05/20265th11/271%50%-0.21
27/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
03/06/20262nd10/382%88%+0.05
22/06/20262nd3/184%91%+0.07
19/07/20261st15/890%100%+0.10