4
Azzurri
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 68
Scottsville · Join The Vibe! www.socialsquad.co.za Class 4 · 5f 212y
#6
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Greyville | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Scottsville | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Greyville | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Greyville | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Kenilworth | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Kenilworth | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 3-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -6.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 10/01/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 31/01/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 22/02/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 46% | -0.20 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 13/06/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 36% | -0.24 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |