10
Fire Chief
3yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 91
Scottsville · Join The Vibe! www.socialsquad.co.za Class 4 · 5f 212y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Scottsville | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Greyville | ? | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-04-24 | Greyville | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength68%
Delivery trend -13.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 06/06/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 45% | +0.03 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |