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9

Follow Your Heart

4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 81

Scottsville · Join The Vibe! www.socialsquad.co.za Class 4 · 5f 212y

#11

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

10/1 and tongue strap on for 1st time, last of 7 in handicap at Durbanville (6.2f, good) 30 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kenilworth 03/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 1323/1244 @ Kenilworth 10/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 133C5 @ Kenilworth 31/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 19 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 13731/01C54 @ Kenilworth 30/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 1334 @ Kenilworth 03/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Sft 1363/0544 @ Kenilworth 16/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Sft 1334 @ Durbanville 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 6f47y Gd 13318/0744 @ Kenilworth 05/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 5f212y GS 1334 @ Durbanville 22/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 6f47y Gd 13222/084projClass-projected finish: 12th of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Durbanville47th7th0
2026-08-05Kenilworth410th10th0
2026-07-18Durbanville44th4th0
2026-06-16Kenilworth48th8th0
2026-05-03Kenilworth49th9th0
2026-03-30Kenilworth43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1230/0318/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 12-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/12/20253rd9/153%71%+0.19
10/01/20265th9/153%71%+0.19
31/01/20269th11/271%56%-0.15
30/03/20263rd10/382%75%-0.07
03/05/20269th11/271%11%-0.60
16/06/20268th12/137%0%-0.37
18/07/20264th22/10%67%+0.67
05/08/202610th10/147%0%-0.47
22/08/20267th9/153%0%-0.53