12
Son Of Rafeef
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 35
Scottsville · Join The Vibe! www.socialsquad.co.za Class 4 · 5f 212y
#12
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.4
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Scottsville | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Scottsville | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Scottsville | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Scottsville | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Greyville | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-11-07 | Greyville | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 21/09/2025 | 2nd | 2/5 | 98% | 89% | -0.09 |
| 07/11/2025 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 43% | -0.50 |
| 28/12/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 29/04/2026 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/05/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 19/07/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 23/08/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |