3
Xenophon
5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 49
Scottsville · Join The Vibe! www.socialsquad.co.za Class 4 · 5f 212y
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Greyville | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-23 | Scottsville | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Scottsville | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Turffontein | ? | 5th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Scottsville | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Turffontein | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 10-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |
| 17/01/2026 | 8th | 15/8 | 90% | 22% | -0.68 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |
| 26/04/2026 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 69% | +0.53 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 23/08/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 04/09/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |