7
Captain's Christy
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 79
Scottsville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Middle Stakes · 4f 214y
#12
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Greyville | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Greyville | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Greyville | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Scottsville | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Scottsville | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Greyville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1835% of fieldRange 4-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength40%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 31/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 18/11/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 19/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 11/01/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 18/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 08/04/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |