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14

Captain's Pride

4yo Filly · 7-12 · OR 59

Scottsville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Middle Stakes · 4f 214y

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. Fourth of 7 in handicap (18/10) at Greyville (7f, good to soft) 17 days ago. Back down in trip. Can make presence felt.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Greyville 19/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 4f214y GS 12219/12C54 @ Scottsville 15/02/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR - · 5f212y GS 122 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Scottsville 01/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 5f212y GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS1/034C5 @ Greyville 29/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Std 1164 @ Greyville 09/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS9/0544 @ Greyville 30/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 5f212y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Greyville 04/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS4/0744 @ Scottsville 02/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 6f211y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Greyville 04/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 6f211y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS4/094projClass-projected finish: 6th of 18
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Greyville44th3rd+1
2026-08-02Scottsville42nd1st+1
2026-07-04Greyville47th6th+1
2026-05-30Greyville45th4th+1
2026-05-09Greyville43rd2nd+1
2026-03-29Greyville?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1229/034/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1882% of fieldRange 4-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength47%

Delivery trend -4.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/12/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
15/02/202613th16/116%0%-0.16
01/03/20262nd17/255%86%+0.30
29/03/20262nd17/255%86%+0.30
09/05/20263rd7/163%80%+0.17
30/05/20265th2/189%50%-0.39
04/07/20267th14/126%40%+0.14
02/08/20262nd10/382%88%+0.05
04/09/20264th15/890%50%-0.40