3
Donquerari
7yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 84
Scottsville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Middle Stakes · 4f 214y
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Scottsville | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Greyville | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Scottsville | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Greyville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Greyville | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Greyville | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1865% of fieldRange 1-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength49%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 30% | -0.12 |
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 90% | +0.27 |
| 09/05/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 11% | -0.60 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 56% | -0.21 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 14/08/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |