2
Exocet
4yo Colt · 9-3 · OR 82
Scottsville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Middle Stakes · 4f 214y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Scottsville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Greyville | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Scottsville | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-07-23 | Scottsville | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1894% of fieldRange 4-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -9.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 31/08/2025 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 03/10/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |