10
Kalahari Roller
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 74
Scottsville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Middle Stakes · 4f 214y
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Greyville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Scottsville | 3 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Greyville | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Greyville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Greyville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Greyville | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1853% of fieldRange 4-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength45%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 25/01/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 01/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 78% | +0.12 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 89% | +0.73 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |