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4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 27
Scottsville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Middle Stakes · 4f 214y
#13
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength52%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Greyville | 3 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-06-03 | Greyville | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | -2th | +4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-09-01 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2025-02-28 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 1812% of fieldRange 9-18 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 16th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 01/09/2025 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 10/10/2025 | 2nd | 2/9 | 99% | 75% | -0.24 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |
| 03/06/2026 | 8th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 12/07/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |