6
Controller
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 82
Thistledown · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
78%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-02-04 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength82%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12/2024 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/12/2024 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 09/01/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 04/02/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 12/05/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 02/06/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 12/08/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |