5
Daddy Justify
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 82
Thistledown · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-01-23 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 13th | −3 |
| 2025-11-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 11th | 13th | −2 |
| 2025-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength39%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 19/06/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 02/08/2025 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 18/08/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 11/09/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 15/11/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 23/01/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 27/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |