7
K Kid
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 86
Thistledown · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-04-27 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 05/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 24/11/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 27/04/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 21/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 12/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |