2
Knock Wood
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 85
Thistledown · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
Delivery trend -6.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 19/02/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 10/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 12/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |