IvyArcIvyArc
10

Phreddie Mac

5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 95

Thistledown · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Kentucky Downs 07/09/2024 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 93 · 1m Fm 120 · below its mark07/09/2024 · OR 93 par7/09C6OR 93C6 @ Keeneland 10/10/2024 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 92 · 1m1f Gd 120 · below its mark10/10/2024 · OR 92 parC9 @ Churchill Downs 22/11/2024 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 88 · 1m110y Fas 121 · beat its mark22/11/2024 · OR 88 par22/11C9OR 88C8 @ Oaklawn Park 05/01/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 89 · 1m Slo 124 · below its mark05/01/2025 · OR 89 parC5 @ Oaklawn Park 03/02/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 98 · 1m1f Fas 120 · below its mark03/02/2025 · OR 98 par3/02C5OR 98C8 @ Oaklawn Park 28/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 93 · 1m110y Fas 122 · beat its mark28/03/2025 · OR 93 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 18/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 90 · 1m Fas 125 · below its mark18/04/2025 · OR 90 par18/04C8OR 90C5 @ Thistledown 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 98 · 5f110y 119 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 98 parC5 @ Thistledown 27/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 97 · 1m Fas 119 · below its mark27/08/2026 · OR 97 par27/08C5OR 97projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2026-08-03Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2025-04-18Oaklawn Park?2nd5th−3
2025-03-28Oaklawn Park?1st4th−3
2025-02-03Oaklawn Park?5th5th0
2025-01-05Oaklawn Park?2nd5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/095/0118/0427/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength88%

Delivery trend -4.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/09/20244th20/10%73%+0.73
10/10/202411th33/10%9%+0.09
22/11/20241st2/189%100%+0.11
05/01/20252nd4/179%89%+0.10
03/02/20255th20/10%43%+0.43
28/03/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
18/04/20252nd5/174%86%+0.12
03/08/20262nd9/276%80%+0.04
27/08/20262nd11/486%86%+0.00