9
Quarantino
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 89
Thistledown · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength78%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/03/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 18/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 25/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 15/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 04/08/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |