3
Swayback Mobil
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 73
Thistledown · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength64%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 18/11/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 13/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 09/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 01/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |