4
Sweeping Giant
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 82
Thistledown · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-11-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength10%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 11/09/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 25% | -0.61 |
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 05/11/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 26/11/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 11/12/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |