1
Wetzel
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 79
Thistledown · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 27/08/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |