1
A Bit Of Captain
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 69
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength92%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 20/08/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 15/09/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 05/08/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 01/09/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 10/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |