6
Gunn's Roar
3yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 54
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength32%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 11/10/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 31/03/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 04/05/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 22/06/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 17% | -0.70 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 10/09/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |