IvyArcIvyArc
7

Have A Cigar

4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 64

Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

82%

Place Prob

56%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength84%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 21/09/2024 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS21/09C6C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 03/11/2024 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 63 · 1m110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/11/2024 · OR 63 parC6 @ Aqueduct 04/01/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 62 · 1m Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/01/2025 · OR 62 par4/01C6OR 62C6 @ Aqueduct 21/02/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 62 · 7f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/02/2025 · OR 62 parC6 @ Aqueduct 23/03/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 66 · 1m1f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/03/2025 · OR 66 par23/03C6OR 66C6 @ Thistledown 08/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 49 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 49 parC6 @ Thistledown 21/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 50 · 5f110y Slo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 50 par21/07C6OR 50C5 @ Thistledown 12/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 48 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 48 par12/08C5OR 48projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-12Thistledown?8th5th+3
2026-07-21Thistledown?1st-1th+2
2026-06-08Thistledown?5th3rd+2
2025-03-23Aqueduct?8th6th+2
2025-02-21Aqueduct?4th2nd+2
2025-01-04Aqueduct?2nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0921/0221/0712/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength43%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/09/20246th8/158%50%-0.08
03/11/202412th8/158%0%-0.58
04/01/20252nd5/174%86%+0.12
21/02/20254th15/261%67%+0.06
23/03/20258th13/891%0%-0.91
08/06/20265th9/276%20%-0.56
21/07/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
12/08/20268th9/153%0%-0.53