Leo's Legacy
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 70
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-09-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2024 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 20/12/2024 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 29/05/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 14/08/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 06/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 22/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |