Nantucket

4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 60

Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.2

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-01	Thistledown	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-07-28	Thistledown	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0
2026-02-22	Laurel Park	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2025-12-19	Penn National	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0
2025-04-12	Keeneland	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2025-02-23	Turfway Park	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -17.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/02/2025	3rd	5/1	74%	80%	+0.06
12/04/2025	7th	14/1	26%	40%	+0.14
19/12/2025	1st	10/11	95%	100%	+0.05
22/02/2026	3rd	11/8	93%	50%	-0.43
28/07/2026	8th	6/1	68%	13%	-0.56
01/09/2026	6th	4/1	79%	17%	-0.62