3
Union Swag
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 62
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/02/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 10/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 11/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 25/03/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 04/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 20% | -0.74 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 11/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |