2
Boaz
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 52
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength65%
Delivery trend +8.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 02/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 24/06/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |