4
Marquitos M
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 61
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 04/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 15/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |