8
P J's Boy
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 52
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength97%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 14/05/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 03/06/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 10/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 08/09/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |