6
Redden
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 63
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-04-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-03-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 17/02/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 10/03/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 23/03/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |