7
Ripman
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 56
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 02/03/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 18/03/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 02/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 09/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |