1
Strike Plate
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 52
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 10th | 13th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength23%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/11/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 24/06/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 22/07/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 38% | -0.44 |
| 10/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 08/09/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |