1
The Ace Project
2yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 52
Thistledown · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
86%
Place Prob
67%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +34.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 13/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |