7
Jenny's Beignet
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 82
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength27%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 31/03/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 27/04/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 21/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 17/06/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 01/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 18/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |