1
Star Weaver
9yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 75
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 17/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 10/10/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 27/10/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 30/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 31/08/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |