6
Thanks Frank
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 84
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 08/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 06/11/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 11/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 02/01/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |