Toddchero
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 94
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
85%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-01-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-12-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 19/09/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 15/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 12/12/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 18/01/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 07/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 13/03/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |