3
Doin Mischief
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 55
Thistledown · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 05/08/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 26/08/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 13% | -0.51 |
| 01/02/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 16/02/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 06/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |