5
Happycastle
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 52
Thistledown · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 03/03/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 19/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 06/04/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 43% | -0.49 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 45% | -0.07 |