6
Skiptheguilttrip
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 30
Thistledown · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-02-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 10th | 13th | −3 |
| 2025-12-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-10-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength20%
Delivery trend +5.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2023 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 10/10/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 27/10/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 18/11/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 16/12/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 24/02/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |