3
Midnite Kings Fate
3yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 48
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength86%
Delivery trend +11.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |